> Daily Digest
5 today// Medium-term (8-30d)
// Long-term (31-90d)
// Yearly (91-365d)
> Active Narratives
Browse all forecasts →Frozen Peace Track and Aid Vacuum Entrench Ukraine's Refinery-Strike War
The absence of a U.S.-brokered framework and the lack of a fresh U.S. aid package leave Ukraine leaning on cheap indigenous deep-strike drones, sustaining the refinery-strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure.
European Growth Slump Drives ECB Easing and Fiscal Retrenchment
Deepening German and continental weakness pushes the ECB toward a rate cut, while parallel fiscal strain forces a large UK consolidation package.
Eastern Ukraine Advance Forces New Evacuations and Locks War Continuity
Russia's grinding eastern offensive is pushing local authorities toward fresh mandatory evacuation orders, another marker that ceasefire prospects remain distant.
Gulf Provocation and Tight Distillates Reinforce the Oil-Inflation Channel
A fresh Iranian provocation near Hormuz combines with structurally tight U.S. distillate stocks to sustain the Brent risk premium, which then feeds sticky U.S. consumer inflation.
Convergent Russian Cyber Campaign Fuels Western Attribution Wave
Parallel pro-Russian and GRU cyber operations against German infrastructure and UK-Ukraine defense-tech networks converge to drive a public attribution wave and defensive hardening.
> Accuracy Metrics
1214
649
0.294
Worse than random
423
225
617
32
12
95%
Ideal system: points lie on the diagonal. Above = underestimating risk. Below = overestimating. Color: green < 10%, yellow < 20%, red ≥ 20% deviation.