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Browse all forecasts →Allied Interceptor Co-Production Hardens Ukrainian Air Defense
Intensifying Russian strikes on Kyiv's defense-industrial base and the convergent drone threat push the US and Ukraine toward a Patriot interceptor co-production or licensing agreement to sustain interceptor supply.
Ukraine Manpower Squeeze Forces Mobilization Reform Amid Draft Backlash
Tightened conscription enforcement provokes visible draft-resistance backlash, while Russian energy-strike pressure and manpower ceilings push Kyiv's parliament toward a comprehensive mobilization overhaul.
Iran Gulf Strike Wave Reignites Global Energy Risk Premium
A renewed Iranian strike wave on US Gulf facilities threatens Hormuz transit, driving both a Brent risk premium and a scramble for Asian spot LNG cargoes as buyers seek alternative supply.
French Social Quiescence Holds Against Political and Austerity Shocks
The absence of a sustained protest wave over the Le Pen candidacy ruling reflects and reinforces a broader French social calm that also suppresses the risk of mass austerity mobilization.
CENTCOM Force Surge Triggers Iranian Cyber Retaliation
A fresh US high-end force deployment to CENTCOM raises the threat posture against Iran, provoking retaliatory Iranian APT cyber operations against US and Gulf financial and energy targets.
> Accuracy Metrics
783
355
0.271
Worse than random
323
32
4
91%
Ideal system: points lie on the diagonal. Above = underestimating risk. Below = overestimating. Color: green < 10%, yellow < 20%, red ≥ 20% deviation.