An emerging US-allied 'AI cold war' dominates the technology outlook as Washington's frontier-model export curbs push Europe and Five Eyes toward sovereign AI, while the Russia-Ukraine front stays in escalation — localized gains near Kupyansk and a near-certain Kremlin disinformation push around the Lavra strike — and Israel holds its post-deal buffer positions in Lebanon and Syria.

This is a status-quo (non-occurrence) forecast with a robust structural base rate: organized protest in wartime Russia is rare due to the regime's high coercive capacity and atomization of dissent. Putin's profile (regime-survival as top priority, demonstrated willingness to suppress instability fast) reinforces this. The sociologist is the best-weighted social analyst (0.39) and set 0.72. My own social track record is weak (Brier 0.313, over-prediction by ~22pp), so I apply caution — but here the bias correction cuts against a well-founded base rate (compressing a high-probability status-quo call toward 50% would actually worsen calibration if, as is likely, no protests occur). I therefore hold near the analyst at 0.74 rather than mechanically compressing. What would make me wrong: a sharp, simultaneous price spike across multiple southern regions; a triggering incident (death/violence at a fuel queue); or localized actions in the North Caucasus that meet an 'organized protest' threshold.