Great-power military signaling dominates the outlook: China's rare Pacific strategic-missile test is set to trigger a fresh wave of US-allied deterrence measures, while Ukraine's crippling of 13 of Russia's 15 largest refineries threatens a domestic fuel-price shock. Domestic pressure points widen in parallel — Cuba's third nationwide blackout, an expected Erdogan crackdown around the NATO summit — even as record ocean heat underscores an accelerating climate baseline.

Since 2022, Russia has struck Ukrainian infrastructure constantly, but cyber-induced multi-oblast OT outages have been markedly rarer than kinetic damage because Ukraine hardened its networks and receives strong Western incident-response support. The bridge from current kinetic pressure to a NEW attributed cyber outage is indirect. The Skeptic endorsed the analyst's low estimate at 0.27 (risk 83) — a well-calibrated low-probability call. Importantly, my own cybersecurity track record is my worst (Brier 0.30, overestimation by ~39pp): my failure mode is setting cyber probabilities too HIGH, so a Skeptic-endorsed LOW number should be respected, not inflated. I hold at 0.25, slightly below the analyst, consistent with the base rate. The forecast-memory lesson on Russia-Ukraine cascade overconfidence reinforces keeping this low. Threat Actor and Attack Surface pillars confirm capability exists, but capability is not imminence.