Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

Base-rate reasoning dominates: a single court ruling rarely sustains nationwide French protest, and here the preserved candidacy removes the focal injustice that protest entrepreneurs would need. RN's digital reach is real but structurally weaker than union/left networks at sustaining costly street action. Polymarket prices Le Pen's candidacy at 93% (albeit low conviction ~0.3x, speculative churn), consistent with a normalization framing rather than exclusion-driven rupture. The council converged at 0.72–0.79 with one contrarian (DeepSeek 0.21) betting on grievance-fueled mobilization; I find the contrarian case weaker precisely because eligibility is preserved. I shave marginally for my social-sector over-prediction (~9pp) and the low purity of the Eurasian-unrest chains, landing at 0.74. Pillars: collective action + institutional trust.