The US-Iran war has re-ignited into an active strike exchange, with Tehran's renewed retaliation on Gulf bases the day's dominant risk and a live spillover into Asian LNG prices. Secondary threads center on Ukraine's deepening manpower crisis — forcing tighter mobilization, reform pressure, and visible draft-resistance backlash — alongside Maduro's likely disaster-driven power consolidation in earthquake-stricken Venezuela.

This is a distinct legislative outcome from the social-backlash forecast, and it has a strong precedent anchor: the April 2024 mobilization law passed under nearly identical pressure after prolonged friction, which lifts this above a lazy coin-flip. The escalating war (confirmed chain stage) and Ukraine's structural manpower deficit create sustained forcing pressure over a 270-day window. Against this: genuine political friction (Syrskyi objections, war-fatigue sensitivity, electoral-timing concerns) can delay comprehensive reform, and 'comprehensive' is a meaningful bar. The political analyst carries no track-record weight, so I anchor on the 2024 base rate. Net assessment lands at 0.62 — leaning yes on precedent and necessity but discounted for demonstrated legislative stalling. I keep this out of the dead-zone-drop category precisely because the 2024 analogue gives a directional lean, not a guess.