Great-power military signaling dominates the outlook: China's rare Pacific strategic-missile test is set to trigger a fresh wave of US-allied deterrence measures, while Ukraine's crippling of 13 of Russia's 15 largest refineries threatens a domestic fuel-price shock. Domestic pressure points widen in parallel — Cuba's third nationwide blackout, an expected Erdogan crackdown around the NATO summit — even as record ocean heat underscores an accelerating climate baseline.

Erdogan's behavioral profile is decisive here: BVI 7, with an explicit documented pattern of using high-profile events and security pretexts to reinforce domestic control, and a demonstrated willingness to defy Western pressure. Turkey's recent trajectory (the İmamoğlu-era detention waves and ongoing opposition/journalist arrests) makes a further crackdown a very high base-rate event, and hosting the NATO summit both raises the security pretext and the incentive to project control. The Skeptic passed at 0.63 (risk 74). My geopolitics track record shows systematic UNDERESTIMATION (~24pp), so I correct upward from the analyst's 0.63 toward 0.74. Psychohistory (leader-pattern) and Game Theory pillars support: repression around a controlled international event is Erdogan's dominant strategy. I cap below 0.85 because the 14-day window is short and a specific 'coordinated' wave may not crystallize precisely in that period.