Russia primes a Victory Day missile salvo against Ukraine while OPEC output sits at a 36-year low — the Middle East energy shock and the Russia-Ukraine escalation now interlock, threatening European jet fuel supplies, accelerating US solar deployment, and pushing Washington toward a Hormuz naval coalition. Meanwhile Beijing's Big Fund is consolidating frontier AI under state capital with a $45B DeepSeek round.

This is one of the most evidence-rich short-horizon forecasts in the pool. Three independent signals converge: (1) Russian MFA's explicit diplomat-evacuation warning verified via Reuters and TASS, (2) Telegram sources with HIGH reliability (Подоляка, Рыбарь at 0.85+) describing strategic bomber dispersals, (3) the May 6 drone surge breaking the declared ceasefire. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION stage with 3,069 clusters over 50 days — the dominant interpretation 'NATO-Russia brinkmanship' (35%) and 'Ukraine expanding strikes under strain' (35%) both favor a Russian retaliatory salvo. Skeptic correctly noted that '64% is well-grounded.' Putin's BVI pattern shows he uses anniversary windows for symbolic violence. I lean above analyst consensus because the diplomat-evacuation warning is a near-unprecedented public signal — historically such warnings precede strikes within 72 hours. Compressing slightly for my military overestimate bias (19pp): from intuition ~0.80 down to 0.72. Game Theory + Psychohistory pillars converge.