Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

France reliably produces protest, but the specific 500,000+ threshold requires a sharp, concrete trigger (a pension-reform-style flashpoint) that is not yet on the calendar; governments typically dilute and delay austerity, and the current opposition is fragmented. This 'protests unlikely' framing at 0.30 (i.e., ~30% chance the large wave materializes) is consistent with historical patterns where mobilization spikes only around a single galvanizing measure. It complements the Le Pen forecast by extending the horizon to a yearly view. The Skeptic's lower risk score (66) reflects the long horizon's inherent uncertainty, which I accept by keeping the probability modest rather than confident. I trim marginally for my social over-prediction tendency.