Coercive diplomacy dominates the outlook: no signed U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine framework or fresh U.S. aid is likely before November even as Ukrainian strikes keep hammering Russian refineries — while France's collapsed government pushes its bond spread toward a 100 bps danger line and Moscow moves to entrench a state-controlled 'sovereign AI' stack.

My fact-check materially strengthened this thesis: the spread is already 84.7 bps (Sep 4, up from ~76 three weeks earlier), and France's government has just FALLEN after a failed confidence vote, deepening fiscal deadlock while it still targets a 4.6% deficit requiring ~€44bn in unspecified savings. Only ~15 bps of further widening is needed to breach 100. Economist carries full weight (weight 1.00, Brier 0.21) and rated this 0.67, matching the Skeptic. I set 0.62 rather than 0.67 for two reasons: (1) 'sustained above 100' is a higher bar than a brief spike — prior French crises (e.g., the 2024 Barnier collapse) peaked near ~90 before partially retracing; and (2) my overall +15pp over-prediction bias warrants a modest haircut even in a reliable sector. ECB easing partially offsets term-premium pressure, capping how fast the spread runs. Net: more likely than not, but genuine risk it oscillates in the high-80s/90s without a durable 100+ break.