Coercive diplomacy dominates the outlook: no signed U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine framework or fresh U.S. aid is likely before November even as Ukrainian strikes keep hammering Russian refineries — while France's collapsed government pushes its bond spread toward a 100 bps danger line and Moscow moves to entrench a state-controlled 'sovereign AI' stack.

This is a high-conviction forecast in my strongest sector (geopolitics, Brier 0.11, slight under-bias) proposed by a top-weight analyst (geopolitician weight 1.00, council consensus 0.78-0.85). The Russia-Ukraine chain has very low interpretation purity (0.27), but critically ALL four competing scenarios feature stalled talks and continued escalation ('peace talks stall' 60%, 'russia intensifies strikes'), so the 'no framework' thesis is robust across the entire meta-uncertainty space rather than dependent on one reading. Putin's behavioral profile (BVI 5) is decisive: he de-escalates only via a face-saving formula that preserves territorial gains, after a long preparation phase — a signed trilateral document in 60 days contradicts his entire pattern (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014). Trump (BVI 8) may stage a performative 'deal' announcement, but a written framework accepted by all three parties is a far higher bar; his coercive leverage is one-sided (aimed at Kyiv, not Moscow). The Skeptic passed at risk 85 and flagged the Minsk-style paper-deal-under-duress as the main counter-scenario, which I weigh but discount because current coercion is asymmetric and Russia is actively escalating (X-101, ballistic, Zircon, Tu-95/160 sorties). I nudge slightly above the analyst/Skeptic 0.79 given my documented under-prediction in geopolitics.