Ukraine's escalating long-range drone campaign dominates the outlook, with another deep strike on Moscow (and a likely Kremlin security clampdown plus emergency fuel controls) judged highly probable within 30 days, while cross-strait conflict stays firmly off the table for the year. Climate and tech round out the day: Arctic sea ice will breach 10 million km² within weeks, and a fresh tightening of US-Dutch ASML controls on China looms.

This is my highest-conviction military call. The military analyst (council consensus 0.90/0.95) carries the best track record in the system (Brier 0.07, weight 0.25), and my own military forecasts run UNDER by ~15pp, so I lean toward the higher end. Forecast memory is decisive: two near-identical forecasts ('another long-range strike on Moscow oil/energy', 'large-scale drone attack on central Moscow') resolved CORRECT at P=0.95 with Brier ~0.003. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in clear ESCALATION (5,847 clusters, 'long-range strikes increase' 97% under the dominant interpretation). Ukraine publicly owned the strike (SBU/SSO) and Zelensky framed it as 'fair response' — signaling political authorization for recurrence, not a one-off. Skeptic scored 87/risk and adjusted to 0.88; I nudge slightly higher given the demonstrated capability and broad resolution criteria. I cap at 0.91 rather than 0.95 to leave room for a temporary operational lull or weather.